تقييم مخاطر الشدات المطرية وتأثيرها على تعرية التربة في حوض وادي العوسج باستخدام الذكاء الصناعي

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between rainfall intensities and the development of geomorphological hazards in Wadi Awsaj, located east of Diyala governorate, within a region characterized by sharp topography and elevation variations reaching 153.88 meters. The wadi is considered a fertile environment for phenomena such as sheet erosion and landslides due to the interplay of geological and climatic factors, particularly during periods of intense rainfall. The study relied on digital data and spatial analyses using the Google Earth Engine platform for the period from 2014 to 2024. It utilized indices for erodibility (C-Factor), vegetation cover (NDVI), rainfall erosivity (R-Factor), soil texture and erodibility (K-Factor), and soil conservation practices (P-Factor) based on vegetation cover to measure the actual intensity of soil erosion. The results of the R-Factor demonstrated a significant variation in annual rainfall amount, ranging from 101 mm in 2021 to 691 mm in 2018. This was reflected in the erosion severity, which ranged between "low" and "very dangerous," recording its highest value in 2018 (86.43 tons/ha/year). The study also showed that weak vegetation cover in certain years (such as 2015 and 2022) was associated with higher C-Factor values, which led to increased soil exposure to erosion. The P-Factor map illustrated that moderate to high slopes contributed to reducing the effectiveness of soil conservation practices, while the K-Factor revealed variations in soil resistance to erosion based on its nature, with sandy soils recording the highest erodibility (K=0.05). The study concluded that high rainfall intensities, coupled with a decrease in vegetation cover and steep slopes, directly contribute to the activation of dangerous geomorphological processes. The research recommends the necessity of regularly monitoring climatic and geomorphological changes and implementing effective land management strategies, such as enhancing vegetation cover and soil stabilization in critical areas