تحليل اتجاهات الحرارة العظمى والصغرى في المنطقة شبه الجافة من العراق في ظل التغييرات المناخية

Abstract

The research aims to evaluate the trends of climate change in the temperature element within the semi-arid region of Iraq, in order to identify the repercussions of global warming, and an attempt to show the patterns of spatial and temporal variation of these thermal changes over that climate range. The research relied on official government data selected from the General Authority for Meteorology and Seismic Monitoring within its time series for half a century (50) years for the period (1973 - 2022) within six climate stations representing the semi-arid region of Iraq, which are the spatial crescent stations extending from the Rabia climate station, then Sinjar, then Mosul, Kirkuk, then Baiji, and finally Khanaqin. The research found a trend towards increasing minimum and maximum temperatures for all climate stations, this trend is represented by the increasing temperature in all six studied stations, which is an important trend from a climatic perspective. The coefficient of increase in minimum and maximum temperatures according to the Mann-Kandel trend test (M.K) and the value of (Sen’s Slope) shows positive trend coefficients witnessed by the stations of the semi-arid region with a statistical confidence of (0.01) 99%. The highest percentage of change in the minimum temperature towards the rise and based on the results of the line equation according to the Mann-Kandel trend test (M.K) and within the value of (Sen’s Slope) was recorded at Rabia station with a change rate of (35.6+)% and the lowest at Sinjar station with (13.1+), while the highest maximum temperature is recorded at Sinjar station with a change rate of (12.1+)% and the lowest at Kirkuk station with (7.4+)%. The interpretation of this thermal change is given by the coefficient of determination R2, in addition to what is shown by the modeling of the spatial dimension of the semi-arid region of Iraq and the differences in the changes in the results of the T. test.